The World Bank analyzed the effects of climate change on migration in South Asia, Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, and published its "Groundswell" report for the first time in 2018, covering the regions of North Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. updated to include.
According to the report, climate change has become an increasingly effective cause of migration in the 6 regions in question.
While the impact of climate change on water resources, agricultural productivity and sea level rise gradually increases, this situation reduces the livability of some regions.
According to the report, which pointed out that climate change will hit poor and vulnerable areas hardest and threaten development gains, climate change may force more than 216 million people from 6 regions to internal migration by 2050.
This figure corresponds to 3 percent of the projected population of the regions for the same period.
It is estimated that 85.7 million climate migrants may emerge in Sub-Saharan Africa and this figure constitutes 4.2 percent of the total population of the region. Sub-Saharan Africa, whose arid areas and coastline are already affected by climate change, stands out as the most fragile region.
48.4 million (2.5 percent) in East Asia and the Pacific, 40.5 million (1.8 percent) in South Asia, 19.3 million (9 percent) in North Africa, 17 in Latin America, It is estimated that 1 million (2.6 percent) and 5.1 million (2.3 percent) people in Eastern Europe and Central Asia may be forced to migrate internally due to climate change.
It is predicted that water scarcity and sea level rise may affect the people living in these regions and the Nile Delta in the North African region, where the highest internal migration can be experienced relative to its population.
Number of climate migrants could be reduced by 80 percent
In the report, "Climate change can change the social, economic and livelihood conditions in a way that forces people to migrate in distress. If no planning is made against this, both the sending and receiving regions will be under great pressure. Hot regions will be created in the 2030s due to internal and external migration. and these regions will increase by 2050." has been warned.
World Bank Vice President for Sustainable Development Juergen Voegele, whose evaluations are included in the report, reminded that in the report published by the bank in 2018, 143 million people from three regions were calculated to migrate due to climate change, and said: "At the same time, the effects of climate change have become more visible. We've had the hottest 10 years and we're seeing extreme weather events all over the world." used the phrases.
Voegele pointed out that millions of people could be prevented from being forced to migrate due to climate change, and continued as follows:
“Internal climate migration could be reduced by 80 percent, or up to 44 million people, by 2050 if countries urgently begin to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, improve vital ecosystems, and help people adapt. Prospects for internal climate migration depend on our actions against climate change over the next few years. The first and most urgent global step must be to reduce emissions."